Security of Supply

Whether it is possible to replace the electricity generation capacities that will be lost by shutting down the German nuclear power plants depends on various factors: on the growth of the economy, the current intensity and the speed with which renewable energies are developed. How is it possible to replace the 20,000 megawatts of installed capacity in the base load range cost-effectively without a supply gap arising?

Impending Power Supply Gap
Back in 2007 the Hamburg World Economics Institute (Hamburgisches Weltwirtschaftsinstitut HWWI) in its study "Power for Germany - Energy Supply in the 21st Century" had calculated that by 2020 there would be a power supply gap of around 16 percent that could not be covered using domestic sources.

More recent forecasts by the German Energy Agency (dena) in its "Brief Analysis of Power Plant and Grid Planning in Germany" of 2008 confirm the power supply gap. The German Energy Agency calculated that even with committed utilisation of the full efficiency potential of electricity, i.e. on achieving the targets for expanding regenerative energies to 30 percent and cogeneration to 25 percent, there would still be a differential between energy demand and power plant capacities. Even allowing for decreasing electricity consumption, such as that assumed by the Federal Government`s energy programme, from as early as 2012 there would no longer be sufficient assured power plant output available to meet the annual peak load. According to the German Energy Agency, this differential would increase to between 12,000 and 21,000 megawatts by 2020 depending on the scenario and the demand for electricity. Consequently, there is a need for at least 15 new large-scale power plants.

Due to the global financial crisis and the associated economic downturn, although German industry consumed less electricity in 2008, nevertheless the most recent studies, such as the study by A.T. Kearney, also assume a rapid rise in energy consumption for Europe for the period after the financial crisis, "Even if the growth in electricity consumption diminishes somewhat in the coming years due to the downturn in economic performance, generally speaking it will be necessary in Europe to anticipate a continuing rise in the consumption of electricity and gas. In the EU-27 it is necessary to anticipate a rise in consumption for electricity of 23 percent to 3,945 terawatt hours and for gas of 25 percent to 630 billion cubic metres by 2020."

Imports - The Way Out?
If one assumes a long-term gap in the supply in the electricity sector and further enforcement of the phase-out of nuclear energy, the consequence would be increased imports of raw materials or electricity. However, in a huge industrial nation such as Germany restriction of the German energy mix and the increased imports of energy that go with it cannot be the aim of a future-oriented energy strategy.

70 percent of the German energy supply already depends on energy imports. The "Overall Energy Economy Concept 2030" study prepared by EWI/EEFA on behalf of the BDI examined various scenarios with or without the phase-out of nuclear energy and came to the following conclusion: A consistent phase-out of nuclear energy would lead to increased use of gas in combined cycle power plants and cogeneration plants, for electricity as well. Dependence on gas importing countries such as Russia would increase as a result.

How much a one-sided dependency on supplier countries can affect the domestic energy supply became clear again at the end of 2008. The gas crisis which escalated for a second time between the Ukraine and Russia came about after the Russian energy supplier GAZPROM reduced the normal amount of gas routed via the Ukraine by two thirds due to price disputes.

The consequences for southeast Europe were dramatic: At times Turkey received no gas supplies at all. Bulgaria, whose only pipeline comes from the Ukraine and has no other natural gas suppliers, had to fall back on reserves. The Croatian government even called for extreme energy saving after the gas supply failed to materialise. In Austria the supply of Russian gas broke down almost completely for days on end as only 10 percent of the volume agreed by contract was routed into the Alps. In Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland there was also a noticeable drop in the gas supply. The conclusion was that people in Eastern Europe were forced to freeze again due to the gas crisis.

So far Germany has been spared the shortages. However, this is only due to the huge gas reserves that are maintained by the energy suppliers. As the European gas sources will be irretrievably exhausted by 2030 at the latest, Russia will become our main supplier of natural gas in the future. If the supply shortages from this region were to be extended then even the German reserves would only be able to close short-term gaps.

Increasing Imports Of Nuclear Electricity
If, as planned, Germany phases out the peaceful use of nuclear energy, there will another consequence in addition to the increasing supply with gas: According to the EWI, in neighbouring countries (France, United Kingdom and the Czech Republic) there would be a simultaneous expansion of electricity production from nuclear energy and an increasing trend towards importing to Germany. Why?

German nuclear power plants produce on average approx 160 billion kilowatt hours of electricity each year and as a result provided 48 percent of the base load electricity last year, that is to say the round the clock electricity supply. If these base load capacities were to be lost due to the phase-out of nuclear energy, then according to the EWI the likelihood would be increased imports of nuclear electricity to Germany. Although increased electricity production from wind power would counteract this to some extent, it would not be possible to counterbalance the import requirement steadily due to the volatility of wind-produced electricity and moreover not in the quantity necessary.

In addition to Germany`s increased reliability on gas supplying countries, the consequence of the phase-out would ultimately be increased imports of electricity from foreign nuclear power plants. Such developments would demonstrate the irrationality of phasing out nuclear energy.

Would you like to learn more about the topic of climate protection and nuclear energy?

The A.T. Kearney and dena studies referred to provide in-depth information.

They may be downloaded at: